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 Mobility and Aerospace
Rise of the Vertical Starter
Text MARC WINKELMANN
From concept to mass market: how the commercial business of air taxis is coming along and which actors are driving its success.
Development
  PHASE 1
By 2025
In the first phase leading
up to 2025, risk-tolerant entrepreneurs will develop certifiable eVTOLs.
Thereā€˜s no shortage of ideas: There are currently some 140 concepts from aviation OEMs, carmakers, and tech start-ups. The key thing is to establish a specialized, experienced team that substantially improves
the drive systems and range of eVTOLs without compromis- ing safety. Recommendations for regulation standards are primarily being defined in the US and Europe, but Chinese regulatory authorities are also very active. The capital invest- ment for manufacturers up to certification amounts to roughly US$1 billion.
Small VTOL aircraft are no panacea for the mobility of the future, but they can provide a useful complement. In particular, they are competitive at distances of twenty kilome-
ters or more. Thanks to their electric drive systems, they are quieter, safer, cheaper, and more environ- mentally friendly than helicopters.
Porsche Consulting forecasts that by 2035, a global market for passenger flights with a volume of US$32 billion and up to 23,000 registered electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft could emerge. This would be joined by a market for goods transport and services such as the inspection of industrial facilities with a volume of US$42 billion. Assuming, that is, that the development proceeds through four phases in which regulations are set forth, infrastructure established, and societal ac- ceptance is assured.
50 Porsche Consulting The Magazine
Concept car: The future
of vertical mobility next25.de/EN/vertical_mobility
25
 Photos GETTY IMAGES, PORSCHE CONSULTING
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