Last Mile Delivery 2030

Come trasporti, aziende, città e consumatori devono adattarsi
Robert Stolt | Martin Jambor | Jonas Hoffmann | Tanja Weber | Markus Abberger
May 2024 | Strategy Paper | Inglese

Last Mile Delivery 2030

How carriers, shippers, cities, and consumers need to adapt

The e-commerce industry experienced an unprecedented boom during the COVID-19 pandemic, and despite a temporary decrease in parcel volume from 2021 to 2022, fast recovery and long-term growth are projected. While roughly four billion parcels were sent in Germany in 2020, around 5.4 billion are expected in 2030 if the market continues to grow at the same rate. Carriers in the courier, express, and parcel (CEP) industry are not only struggling to cope with the increase in parcel volumes but also with rising sustainability concerns, as well as increasing regulations in cities aimed at reducing emissions, especially in urban areas. Additionally, rising consumer demands, such as next-day delivery, real-time tracing, or an easy return process, are becoming increasingly challenging for carriers to meet. Finally, changes in the economic environment, such as labor costs, availability, and rising energy costs, have added additional pressure on the industry.

This strategy paper addresses the complexities of last-mile delivery in urban environments, evaluating innovative solutions and strategic measures to meet increasing parcel volumes and regulatory demands while enhancing sustainability and efficiency.


of last mile shipments are likely to be delivered by light commercial (and electric) vehicles in some cities by 2030.


is the projected delivery capacity gap which cannot be closed by parcel stations and cargo bikes alone. 


innovative and digital solutions have been identified to potentially close the delivery capacity gap in 2030.

Management Summary
  • In the future, the volume of parcel deliveries will continue to increase while city authorities impose more regulations on urban traffic to meet sustainability targets.
  • To meet regulations and customer demands without compromising margins, carriers must rethink last-mile delivery, incorporating concepts like cargo bikes and parcel stations.
  • A significant gap will remain between delivery capacity and the projected parcel demand in case other delivery methods are not implemented.
  • Carriers and shippers need to continue to strive for innovative approaches to create more delivery capacity in new modes of transportation, optimize their existing structures, or reduce avoidable parcel volume caused by consumer behavior.

Read the whole strategy paper now


Consulting that works

You want to get in touch with our experts? Reach out to us.


Tendenze & Soluzioni

IA Generativa nel Marketing e PR

Come la GenAI sta rivoluzionando il futuro della strategia

Trasformando l'Industria dei Trasporti

Il fattore umano è la chiave

Alimentando il Futuro

Elettrificando lasciando i combustibili fossile nella polvere